This is a fascinating week in trailer activity, as Infinity War pre-release viewing comes to a close and this should be the last week it’s at the top of the chart in general. Three new releases, Bad Samaritan, Overboard, and Tully are sending conflicting signals. And two strong new trailers drop for Kin and Crazy Rich Asians. The full analysis is below, and as always log in to the FLIQ app for detailed numbers.
Top of the Chart – Avengers: Infinity War is the most watched trailer this week in the wake of its release. It is just narrowly edging out Venom, which is pulling in very strong views and already has the 4th best performing trailer this year despite being released just 10 days ago. Infinity War will start to decline from here, and we covered the remarkable nature of its trailer run in some detail last week. We can say at this point that it is the most watched trailer content prior to release that we’ve ever measured, generating 329M views, in second place is Star Wars The Force Awakens is second at 250M. Those are big, BIG numbers. The average movie these days gets ~20M pre-release views.
Releasing This Week – Really interesting release slate this week with three smaller titles releasing and Infinity War expected to continue dominating the box office. Massive movies like that come with massive budgets (Infinity War is a record-breaking $500) which means carpet bombing marketing and piggy-back content farming, which makes it difficult to tell real buzz from noise. Trailer information for marginal releases, however, tends to be a cleaner signal of interest and engagement and usually tells us more about expected performance. Two weeks ago we observed the difference in trailer views between I Feel Pretty and Super Troopers 2 and indeed Super Troopers 2 went on to way overperform expectations while I Feel Pretty moderately underinformed.
Opening this weekend are Bad Samaritan (2,000 theaters), Overboard (1,600 theaters) and Tully (1,300 theaters). None of the three are cracking the top ten most watched trailers this week, but that’s almost expected. If we look at the total views generated so far, Bad Samaritan is way ahead at 19M, with Tully in second place at 6.8M and Overboard last at 5M. The concerning thing about Bad Samaritan is that this week it has only picked up 38K views total. Both Tully and Overboard are doing significantly better with 430K and 316K views respectively. If we place more value on what the audience is watching this week from a trailer standpoint, both Tully and Overboard are tracking significantly better than Bad Samaritan.
That said, when Bad Samaritan dropped it’s final trailer two weeks ago, it appeared to resonate and was the 6th most watched trailer that week with 6.9M views. It generated more views that week than either Tully or Overboard have in their entire promotional run. So the question this week is if that interest was stored and relevant audiences have already made up their mind to go see Bad Samaritan, or if it piqued interest but now that release week is here and purchasing decisions are being made the audience is looking at Tully and Overboard more. The guess here is that Bad Samaritan does underperform slightly and Tully and Overboard do surprisingly well.
New Trailers / Biggest Movers – two summer releases kicked off their promotional campaigns with new trailers this week, Kin (Lionsgate) and Crazy Rich Asians (Warner Bros.). Reaction to both has been relatively strong and they are tracking close together approach 10M views which has to be encouraging for both, Kin being a rare original SciFi feature, having no built-in audience and Crazy Rich Asians being, well, a non-SciFi or superhero release. They will be releasing within two weeks of each other at the end of August, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on how they are tracking comparatively.
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