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November, 2017

New Releases

The movie holiday season is here, and it’s promising to be an interesting finish to 2017. Competing for attention are some serious big-budget sequels, family films and offbeat comedies. In order to understand the audience interest levels for each new remaining release, we have looked at trailer activity data and compared each movie side by side. Read on for the full analysis, and see if your interest lines up with our data!

Trailer Views

We’ve previously explored some of the challenges involved in constructing useful trailer view information with Thor: Ragnarok and the Marvel Cinematic Universe as a case study. This report builds on that idea and presents a more tracking style view that’s useful when looking at the entire upcoming slate of new releases.

Movies are listed chronologically by release date and for each movie, we calculate the cumulative and average daily views. Within both, we also have an additional breakout by time to better understand how quickly it ramped up after release and how it compares on even footing to other titles.

Trailer Activity Report

There are two additional pieces of information that enable us to further understand the nature of the views. One is the count of trailers we are including in this analysis and the other is the average Percent of Likes. The Percent of Likes is derived from the ratio of views to the number of likes on a given trailers youtube pages. Note this is an exceedingly low number but does track directionally with audience sentiment, see Star Wars generating the highest percentage.

The Slate

Our major tentpole titles are clearly Justice League and Star Wars: Return of the Jedi. We would also consider Pitch Perfect 3 and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle tentpole-ish. Not surprisingly, these are all sequels of one sort or another – but in the context of franchises that are in very different places.

Coming off of the monster success of The Force Awakens, the Star Wars franchise is peaking and expanding. Justice League is trying to chart a new course for the DC universe, by building on the success of Wonder Woman and moving away from “hits” like Suicide Squad and Batman Vs Superman. Pitch Perfect 3 is course-correcting following the disappointing second film in the series. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is exploring the 1995 semi-hit to see if there is franchise potential there.

The Star, Coco, and Ferdinand are all animated kids titles that will compete for family attention and dollars over the holidays. Wonder sits adjacent to this group as a non-animated title that is aimed more directly at families than kids.

Just Getting Started has the lowest view activity of any title on this list and it’s going to be interesting to see how excited audiences are to see Tommy Lee Jones and Morgan Freeman as an over-the-hill duo in an action comedy.

Rounding out the slate are The Greatest Showman on Earth, a P.T. Barnum inspired musical and Downsizing a social-satire comedy. These two are vehicles for Hugh Jackman and Matt Damon respectively. TGSoE is actually posting somewhat surprisingly strong numbers here, especially looking at the daily and burst figures, so this is something to keep an eye on.

This Weeks Releases

We will be posting the FLIQ first week forecast for Justice League, The Star, and Wonder tomorrow. Looking at this trailer report to get a sense of how FLIQ will score these titles, a few observations: Justice League trailer activity is really strong. Which is a good sign, but attenuated by the early feedback from critics. The consensus seems to be, “it could have been worse, but it’s certainly no Wonder Woman“.

Wonder the movie being released this weekend is generating relatively strong trailer view numbers all its own, in particular, the Likes % jumps out as second only to Star Wars on this list. It will be going head-to-head with The Star this weekend which is not showing a lot of interest at all in this report. This further dims box office prospects for The Star which was already looking like a pretty underwhelming performer.

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