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November, 2017

Forecast
New Releases

The first week of November kicks off the holiday release cycle with Thor: Ragnarok, the latest entry in the Marvel worlds-destroying-revenue-machine Cinematic Universe. The only other major new release that will be competing with Thor for eyeballs is A Bad Mom’s Christmas, the sequel to last years summer rated-R comedy hit.

Editor’s Note: This post is part of an ongoing series where each week we look at the new movies being released and the predictions made by FLIQ. Questions and suggestions welcome at @FliqAI.

Thor is well positioned this week considering the light release schedule and a weak slate of holdovers already active at the theaters.  A Bad Mom’s Christmas on the other hand is ostensibly facing some headwind. Conventional wisdom is that women-led adult comedies perform best in the summer months. As a statistical phenomenon this is actually true and holds even when adjusting for budget, but there are so few examples to base this observation on, that on a gut-level it feels more like a symptom rather than actual cause of bad performance. On the other hand, it can be also considered an opportunity to reach an underserved market. So couple interesting experiments this week: can Thor maintain and build MCU momentum? Can ABMC buck the (potentially spurious) trend and find an audience?

Data by FLIQ.AI

Looking at the actual predictions that FLIQ is making this week, one thing is abundantly clear: FLIQ loves Thor. In a previous post we dug into the very strong interest generated by the trailers for Thor and this is a big driving factor here. The other positive signals influencing this high prediction are good early critical reviews and audience interest tracking well and growing approaching release.

Things are less rosy for A Bad Mom’s Christmas. A high-teens ($M) opening week performance on a $28M budget would be fine, but disappointing compared to the $36M opening of the original, which was made for $8M less. FLIQ is definitely picking up on the “out of season leading lady R rated comedy” dynamic mentioned earlier.

Forecasts Roundup

Every week we will compare the FLIQ forecast to others made by BoxOfficeMojo and Pro.BoxOffice. We will also be making a weekly prediction setting up a fun Men vs Machine experiment. As we go forward, it will be interesting to reflect on and understand which types of predictions are better, where and how.

Rounding up the predictions this week, we do see again just how madly FLIQ is in love with Thor. A $193M opening week would make Thor the second best opening week in November of all time. I am at this point sort of erring on the side of caution there and middling, but the FLIQ prediction is definitely making me think twice here.

When it comes to A Bad Mom’s Christmas, BoxOfficeMojo and I are thinking quite similarly here, while pro.BoxOffice and FLIQ are more optimistic.

It’s worth noting: we are not quite predicting the same things here. The other two forecasters are predicting the first weekend revenue while FLIQ and I are predicting the whole first week, so our numbers are naturally ~20% higher. This is something we’ll get deeper into in a couple weeks, when we reflect back on these predictions and compare how everyone performed.

Data by FLIQ.AI

Check out the detailed forecasts from the sites above, some great notes this week:

Box Office Mojo Weekly Forecast 11/3

Pro.BoxOffice Weekend Forecast 11/3

As always, questions and thoughts are welcome. We’ll see you back here next week and we’ll see if FLIQs affection for Thor was justified or if it was overwhelmed by hype.

 

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